Low feed prices could increase feedlot production
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released details regarding animal production in Brazil and the potential increase in the number of cattle raised on feed in an agricultural specialist report.
Overall, beef production in Brazil is expected to increase 3% to around 10.5 million metric tonnes in 2020, the specialist said. Growth is driven by exports – mainly to China and Hong Kong – as well as increased domestic demand.
Meat production in a feedlot system is expected to double over the next five years, he said. Containment feed has already increased by around 12%.
“Feedlot operations are expected to increase by more than 5% in 2020, from 5.5m to almost 6m drop height. “he said. “The increase is mainly due to higher livestock prices and lower feed costs. Most of the increase in feedlots is in the Midwest region, which is close to a higher silage supply. “
Pork production is expected to reach a record 4.1 million metric tonnes based on stable feed prices, the strength of the export market to China and growing domestic demand, he said. he declares.
“Factors of production for beef and pork, such as stable feed costs due to a record soybean and corn crop and increased carcass weight, fuel optimism for both industries. ‘next year.”
“The expected growth of the Brazilian economy in 2020 of more than 2%, with lower inflation and unemployment rates and higher consumer purchasing power, supports optimism in the animal protein sector in the United States. Brazil”, said the specialist. “However, the US-China trade dispute and exchange rate fluctuations remain uncertainties for the industry.”
Calf production in 2020 is expected to increase by around 2% as producers continue to expand their herds, the specialist said.
“Cattle production will continue to be supported by several government programs, such as subsidized agricultural credit for pasture improvement, recovery of degraded pastures, crossbreeding programs using imported bovine genetics, good nutrition, health and the increasing use of reproductive technologies ” he said. “The weather model forecast for 2020 calls for more precipitation to benefit pastures in the Midwestern regions, which account for about 40% of beef production in Brazil.”
Animal production in Brazil remains primarily grass-fed, with feedlot production accounting for around 10% of the meat generated, he said. However, there could be an increase in feedlot type production to reduce cattle weight loss during dry periods.
“The feedlots are concentrated in the state of Sao Paulo and the west-central states of Mato Grosso, Goias and Mato Grosso do Sul”, he said. “These four states alone account for 73% of all feedlots in Brazil. Semi-containment systems where livestock are fed cereal rations while grazing (mainly during the dry season) are also increasing and concentrated in the Center-West.
Beef production in 2020 is expected to increase based on factors such as record exports in 2019, domestic demand, heavier carcass weights as a result of breed development works and increased production from the farms. ‘fattening, said the specialist.
Exports in 2020 are expected to increase by 7% with markets such as China and Hong Kong, as well as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Russia, Iran and Turkey, he said. he declares.
“Local traders are optimistic about an increase in Brazilian beef exports to the Muslim world”, he said. “Currently, there are over 100 cattle slaughterhouses in Brazil approved under the halal system. “
The pig herd in 2020 is expected to grow 3.5% based on record pork exports and domestic use, the specialist said. Producers are expected to have low production costs and high exports as a result of the effects of African swine fever (ASF) in China and Europe.
The cost of pig production has fallen as nutritional costs come down, he said.
“The outlook for the near future is for some stability in production costs, due to an expected increase in corn and soybean harvests”, said the specialist. “Independent pork producers, however, are skeptical of the outlook for lower corn prices, as Brazil is expected to export record quantities of corn in 2019 and 2020 due to higher global demand and competitive prices for Brazilian supplies. . “
Total pork production is expected to increase in line with global demand and expanding domestic consumption, he said.